It is also worth noting that ODP market is very fragmented; some vendors offer ODP deployment platforms (like Surfkitchen, Action Engine, Mobinex etc.) and some just create taylor-made solutions.

Great post! I agree that many of the ODP vendors are bringing a tools/technology approach and/or a demand creation approach as opposed to building a brand and fulfilling existing demand.

My view is that affiliate ODP models will work best in the US where existing Web/entertainment brands are leveraged to acquire customers, allowing these brands to “go mobile” easily. The affiliate ODP vendor will also capture customers over the medium-term and perhaps turn into a brand over time. This, of course, requires the ODP vendor to sign distribution deals with carriers so its somewhat of the same old game that all the ODP vendors are playing but has somewhat more market power to negotiate with the mobile operators. Outside the US, I believe a more direct-to-consumer off-deck approach will work better as demonstrated by the adoption rates that companies such as BluePulse, Flurry, Plusmo, etc. are seeing outside the US/EU markets.

Fascinating space to watch.

cheers,
dev